Create a path to the College Football Playoff for top contenders

The Allstate Playoff Predictor breaks down which teams have the best chance to make this season's College Football Playoff.

08/31/2023

College football is back! And it's never too early to start thinking about which teams have the best chance to make the playoff. In the first full week of football, a top-10 matchup between LSU and Florida State is the one to watch. Who will be among the last four teams standing? You decide.

For the past nine years, the Allstate Playoff Predictor has been painting a week-to-week picture of which teams have a realistic chance to be one of the four in the College Football Playoff, and overall, it has been pretty accurate, if we do say so ourselves. All eight champions were given at least a 65% chance to make the CFP before their championship season even began.

Using that stat and the criteria below to set the table, we give you the chance to pick a team and decide how its season will pan out. According to your choices, the Allstate Playoff Predictor will determine how likely that team is to be one of the four CFP semifinalists.

Teams with less than a 7% chance to make the CFP are not included.

Choose one team

These are the 14 teams with the highest-percent chance to make the CFP, ordered from most to least likely.

How does {selected-team} finish the remainder of the regular season?

No team has ever made it to the playoff with more than one loss. Two-loss teams have an outside chance, but three or more losses all but exclude a team from the playoff, so that option isn't on the table.

Which {team-value} does {selected-team} lose to?

The three toughest opponents on the schedule are listed here with the percentage chance {selected-team} wins. Choose {team-count}.

Does {selected-team} win its conference title game?

The College Football Playoff committee greatly values conference championships (27 of 32 CFP selections have been conference champs), but it's not a requirement.

{selected-team}'s Chances

If the season plays out exactly as you've selected, the Allstate Playoff Predictor says this is your postseason outlook.

Sorry, this scenario either isn't possible or did not play out in enough of the 200,000 simulations run by the Allstate Playoff Predictor to be analyzed.

Week 1 games that matter to the CFP race

SEC West champion LSU travels to Orlando for a meeting with a Florida State team that won 10 games last season -- including the season opener against the Tigers.