Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress (Drama) — Could Leslie Manville Pull Off an Olivia Colman Surprise Win Over Her Co-Star Elizabeth Debicki?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Weekly Commentary (Updated: Aug. 19, 2024): The acting wins across the six seasons of Netflix’s monarchy drama “The Crown” have taken multiple twists and turns.

In 2017, Claire Foy, who portrayed Queen Elizabeth II, was favored to win but lost to Elisabeth Moss for “The Handmaid’s Tale.” John Lithgow, who played Winston Churchill, was the only acting winner of the series that year.

In 2018, Foy secured her first statuette, with director Stephen Daldry also taking home a prize. In 2020, Olivia Colman, who succeeded Foy as Queen Elizabeth in the show’s later seasons, was expected to win, especially after her Oscar for “The Favourite” in 2019. However, history-making Zendaya won the award for “Euphoria,” besting Colman.

Then came 2021, a year marked by an epic sweep for the series, which became the first drama to win all major Emmy categories. Despite this achievement, a surprising twist occurs when Colman wins over Emma Corrin, who portrayed Princess Diana. Corrin had won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards for the role, making Colman’s win unexpected.

Now, in 2024, signs point to a possible upset. Elizabeth Debicki, nominated in 2023 for her portrayal of Princess Diana, is undefeated in the televised awards circuit for the final season, having won Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG awards. A clue might be found in the writing category. Peter Morgan and Meriel Sheibani-Clare were nominated for the episode “Ritz” instead of the expected series finale, “Sleep, Dearie Sleep.” “Ritz,” which centers on Princess Margaret, showcases Lesley Manville’s standout performance, ending on a heart-wrenching emotional note and arguably standing as the season’s best episode. The episode is also Manville’s official submission. With a career with an Oscar nomination for “Phantom Thread” (2017), Manville could secure her first Emmy nod with a surprising win.

Vote-splitting between “The Crown” and Apple’s “The Morning Show” actresses could open the door for Christine Baranski from HBO’s “The Gilded Age.” Baranski, who last won in 1995 for her supporting role in the comedy “Cybill,” is now in the running for her second statuette with her 16th nomination.

The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will be held on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.