G-20 to be Biden’s newest front in his battle with China for economic power

The messages often resonate in friendly gatherings among NATO and G-7 allies. But it’ll be a harder sales job for Biden at the G-20, a forum that “the bad guys” — one senior administration official’s sly reference to the autocracies present — also attend.

And then there’s the event’s host.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the catalyst of his country’s democratic backslide. But he leads the world’s most populous nation, a growing economic powerhouse that serves as a counterweight to China and a bridge between the world’s poorest peoples and the West. Biden hosted the Indian leader for a state visit to the White House earlier this year, even though Modi has overseen gross human rights abuses against India’s Muslim population. Modi’s government also is forcibly bulldozing slums in New Delhi ahead of the summit for optical purposes.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who the CIA assessed ordered the killing of a Washington Post columnist, will also be in attendance and is poised for a bilateral chat with Biden. The president pledged on the campaign trail to make the kingdom a global “pariah,” but in office he has strived to broker a deal normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which requires consistent leader-level engagement. Riyadh, which has shown signs of moving closer to China, is on a multi-billion dollar quest to become the Middle East’s economic engine.

The greatest villains of the Biden years, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, won’t be in the Indian capital. But the subtext of the G-20, from economics to financial arrangements to geopolitics, will be about how China — and autocracies in general — looks less and less like a reliable partner for developing countries.

Concern about China’s sputtering economy has rattled global markets. Growth has slowed and unemployment levels have soared, particularly for the country’s newest workers. The numbers for youth unemployment have gotten so bad that Beijing stopped publishing data in August.

There are few prospects for an imminent turnaround. Country Garden, China’s largest real estate developer, is scrambling to pay its debts. If it goes under, it will signal that China’s reeling real-estate market is beyond quick fixes. The state’s tight grip on the economy stifles innovative thinking and swift movements that could curb a collapse.

China’s woes will be top of mind as the American president swaggers into New Delhi selling “Bidenomics” to anyone who will listen.

Biden, per U.S. officials, will point to strong job growth and cooling inflation — much lower than much of the world — as evidence that the U.S. has recovered from the Covid pandemic. And he will make the case that the institutions the U.S. helped create after World War II, like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, can reform into more reliable bodies for developing nations.

“We know that these institutions are some of the most effective tools that we have for mobilizing transparent, high quality investment into developing countries,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Tuesday from the White House podium.

He further insisted Biden will offer an “affirmative” agenda to such nations, not just broadsides against China’s development assistance. “We believe that there should be high standard, non-coercive lending options available to low- and middle-income countries. That’s a fact. It’s also a fact that World Bank reform is not about China, in no small part because China is a shareholder in the World Bank,” Sullivan said.

The question heading into the G-20 is if certain developing nations, namely independently minded ones like India that have China on their doorstep, will accept Washington’s us-or-them framing.

But it’s as good a moment to make the pitch as any.

“For countries that are trying to decide how they are aligned, I think the economic story is one that certainly benefits the U.S. right now,” said Stephanie Segal, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

After Biden leaves India for Vietnam, he will shift his focus from issues of the boardroom to the global chess board. The nation is both worried about China’s aggression — and pleased that restrictions on Beijing’s economy are sending jobs and investment its way.

Hanoi has been locked in a yearslong dispute with Beijing over who controls parts of the South China Sea. Last week, a Chinese Coast Guard ship shot a water cannon at a Vietnamese fishing boat. In addition, recently released satellite imagery shows China building an airfield on an island that Hanoi says is Vietnamese territory.

Meanwhile, the Communist country is reaping benefits from tariffs and export controls the U.S. places on Chinese industry. It has led American companies to move their business to Vietnam, which has a vested interest in defining and improving its relationship with the United States.

“That could be a way for Vietnam to try to balance the pressure from China,” said Hung Tran, a former deputy director of the IMF who’s now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

For Biden, the signing of a strategic partnership is another way to make friends in Asia as China loses them. The president is fresh off an historic trilateral summit with the leaders of South Korea and Japan, bringing them closer to Washington and each other. The enhanced cooperation among countries is meant partly to thwart Beijing’s regional aims.

Biden’s advisers view visiting Vietnam as an important symbol of the administration’s commitment to the growing bulwark against China, according to three officials not authorized to speak publicly about private deliberations. And those aides believe the entire trip had the added benefit of showcasing Biden’s leadership on the global stage, presenting a stark contrast with the messy GOP primary field back home.

“The president’s visit, in some ways, is really just a victory lap against a lot of critics and skeptics in Asia, particularly those who believe that the U.S. is in relative decline,” said Nirav Patel, CEO of the U.S.-based Asia Group consultancy.

But the Vietnam stop, strategically significant as it is, proved a scheduling nightmare for the administration. It wasn’t finalized when Biden revealed at an Aug. 8 fundraiser in New Mexico that he planned to go, though discussions had been under way in the West Wing. The possibility still remained at that point for Biden to meet his Vietnamese counterpart on the sidelines of the G-20.

Then another complication emerged: The Sept. 11 anniversary.

There would not be enough time for Biden to leave the G-20, have a meaningful visit in Hanoi and then make it back to Washington for the annual remembrances held in the morning at the time when the hijacked planes struck. The decision was then made, the officials said, to have Biden commemorate the solemn moment with members of the armed forces at a military base in Alaska, where Air Force One would stop to refuel on its way back from Asia.

On the 22nd anniversary of the worst terror attacks in the nation’s history, Biden would become the first president not to mark it at one of the three sites struck. That duty will fall to Vice President Kamala Harris and first lady Jill Biden — if she has recovered from Covid by then.

The first lady tested positive earlier this week, putting the entire trip into doubt upon fears that the president could contract Covid from her.

Phelim Kine contributed to this report.