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1 year ago
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Joe Biden announced that he is running again, and I feel fine. I know this development will frustrate, disappoint or even anger some Democrats — there’s a strong desire to see new candidates. A recent NBC poll has Biden’s approval rating at 41%, which is low. The poll also found that 70% of Americans — including 51% of Democrats — don’t want Biden to run for president in 2024. We all want things in life, but we also have to deal with the situation we have in front of us — there are no serious Democratic challengers because the rest of the party knows no one can beat Biden. If there was a seriously viable Democrat who thought they could beat Biden, they would try. They know that for Democrats to hold onto the White House then the best option is Biden. Let’s talk about it.
Incumbency comes with tremendous power — four of the last six incumbent presidents have won re-election. Incumbents have an easier time raising money and they have an easier time looking presidential because they are. They generally come into the election with an advantage. The Democratic Party would be silly to toss aside an incumbent president, especially one who proved that he remains strong at the ballot box during the 2022 midterms.
A president’s first midterm election is a crucial test and usually, the president’s party loses a significant number of seats. In 2010, when Obama faced his first midterms, Republicans gained five seats in the Senate, 63 seats in the House and six governors. Biden had an entirely different showing — in 2022, Dems had one of the best midterm showings in the past century. They added one seat in the Senate and three governors while losing 10 seats in the House. That proved to me, more than polling could, that Biden remains strong. But the consternation about him remains, and I understand the reasons.
The big issue is Biden’s age. He’s 80, but his most likely competitor right now is Trump and he’s almost 77 so how can Republicans draw a contrast? How do they say the president’s too old; you should vote for our old guy? Also, the overwhelming majority of voters are people older than 45. This KFF survey of voters shows the number of 2020 voters by age. About 13.7 million voters were 18-24. About 24 million were between 25-34. Another 23 million were 35-44. 53.6 million were 45-64 and 39 million were over 65. In 2020, the New York Times wrote: “Most young people in the United States don’t vote. Fewer than half of Americans 18 to 29 voted in the 2016 presidential election.” This is not unique to America — the Times analyzed voting records for two dozen democracies and found the general population’s voting rate always exceeds the voting rate for young people.
Most of the time, young voters are not the deciders. In the 2022 midterms, young voters were a powerful force, especially young women who were angry about the Roe v. Wade decision. But the case that he’s too old will have to be made with older voters. Do you think that telling older voters that Biden is too old to remain as president will work? Especially when his potential opponent is also a senior? The argument that Biden is too old will need grown folks to buy into it, and when you talk to them, you see they won’t. A few decades ago, back in 1984, people thought that maybe 73-year-old incumbent President Ronald Reagan was too old to compete with 56-year-old Walter Mondale. The old man famously said “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” Reagan won in a landslide.
Biden’s age probably wouldn’t be as much of an issue if he stirred Democratic hearts. When people complain about his age, what I really hear is he’s boring. He’s slow. He’s not charismatic, he’s not iconic, he’s not a political rock star like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama or even Donald Trump. Dems want to fall in love with their presidential candidates, but those sorts of people don’t come along every election. Also, you don’t need to be charismatic to be a successful politician. It helps to be liked but what you really need to do is to communicate extreme competence — every fiber of your being must say I can do the nation’s toughest job. Biden doesn’t give you star power; you don’t really want to have a beer with him, but he gives you competence. For serious viewers of the political scene — as opposed to right-wing lunatics who are still shouting about Hunter Biden’s laptop — Biden has done the job without a significant mistake. Some voters are upset about inflation, but most people know inflation is not a president’s fault and many voters are not buying the notion that inflation is Biden’s fault. Even the right-leaning Wall Street Journal has said Biden should not be blamed.
What a president fears most heading into an election is some major mistake that will make people question whether or not he should stay in the job. George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign was, in many ways, a fight over the Iraq War. Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign was, in many ways, about COVID. These were big controversial issues where many people thought the president had screwed up and thought about punishing him for it. In 2024, there will be no big mistake that Biden’s opponents will be able to bash him for. There’s no lingering story that the media will be able to talk about and chew on as a way of saying should we give him another chance?
It looks as if we’re headed for another round of Biden vs. Trump, a rematch virtually no one wants but here we are. Can you explain how Trump in 2024 could muster more support than he got in 2020? I don’t see it. In 2024, Trump will need to win over voters who didn’t support him in 2020 but how? Then he was an incumbent; now he’s under indictment in New York City and he’s about to grapple with a lawsuit from a writer who accused him of rape. Meanwhile, he hasn’t done anything that would improve his candidacy in 2024. Seriously, who is the person out there who did not vote for Trump in 2020 but will side with him next year? What could make them switch to Trump now?
The presidential race isn’t really about every voter in America. We know how about 44 of the states will probably go. But there are six that will probably be the heart of the battle — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Dems don’t need to win over Trump voters, they need to win voters in most of those swing states. Biden’s strength remains his ability to win over blue-collar voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where they see him as one of their own. No other Dem comes close to having a major influence on that many critical swing states. I feel comfortable with the guy from Scranton who voters in those states connect with.
Touré is a host and Creative Director at theGrio. He is the host of the podcast “Toure Show” and the podcast docuseries “Who Was Prince?” He is also the author of seven books including the Prince biography Nothing Compares 2 U and the ebook The Ivy League Counterfeiter. Look out for his upcoming podcast Being Black In the 80s.
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