Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor — First Projections Put Spotlight on Edward Norton, Pedro Pascal and Samuel L. Jackson

1 month ago 2

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor

Weekly Commentary (Updated July 28, 2024): It’s difficult to assess any of the supporting categories as we never know which performers will stand out.

What we know so far, at least based on the source material and early buzz, is Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) and Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”), two overdue and beloved veteran actors, are said to deliver in their respective films.

The first teaser for James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” shows Edward Norton, a three-time Oscar nominee who also could vie for his first career statuette.

The buzz for Ridley Scott’s sequel “Gladiator II” continues to make the rounds, and with it, a possible Denzel Washington lead actor campaign, instead of the presumed supporting as Joaquin Phoenix executed from the 2001 best picture winner. If that’s the case, that leaves an opening for co-stars Pedro Pascal and Joseph Quinn.

Sprawling ensembles, such as Jason Reitman’s “SNL: 1975” and RaMell Ross’s “Nickel Boys,” could also put one or two of their cast members in the hunt.

There will be plenty more to analyze as the race unfolds. Sit tight.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

RankPerformer & Film

1	Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
2	Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
3	Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
4	Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing” (A24)
5	Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) **

Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Next in Line

RankPerformer & Film

6	Pedro Pascal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
7	Lamorne Morris — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
8	Mark Eydelshteyn — “Anora” (Neon)
9	Yura Borisov — “Anora” (Neon)
10	Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24)

Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Kyle Kaplan/Focus Features. © 2024 Focus Features, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Other Contenders

RankPerformer & Film

11	Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) **
12	Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
13	Daveed Diggs — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
14	Jay O. Sanders — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
15	Stephen Graham — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
16	John Lithgow — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
17	Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
18	Richard Roundtree — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
19	Drew Starkey — “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) **
20	Ray Fisher — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

A MAD MAX SAGA, (aka FURIOSA), Chris Hemsworth, 2024. © Warner Bros. /Courtesy Everett Collection

Also In Contention

RankPerformer & Film

21	Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) **
22	Nicholas Hoult — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
23	Joseph Quinn — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
24	Brendan Gleeson — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
25	Chris Hemsworth — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
26	Austin Butler — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
27	Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) **
28	Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) **
29	Willem Dafoe — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
30	Dennis Quaid — “The Substance” (Mubi)

Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Eligible Performers (Best Supporting Actor)

Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- Toby Jones — “The Actor” (Neon) **
- Yura Borisov — “Anora” (Neon)
- Mark Eydelshteyn — “Anora” (Neon)
- Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Antonio Banderas — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Harris Dickinson — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Jean Reno — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **
- Jonno Davies — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) **
- Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi)
- Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi)
- Harris Dickinson — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Stephen Graham — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- Wagner Moura — “Civil War” (A24)
- Jesse Plemons — “Civil War” (A24)
- Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- John Lithgow — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Wesley Snipes — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Channing Tatum — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Adam Pearson — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Javier Bardem — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Josh Brolin — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Austin Butler — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Christopher Walken — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Édgar Ramírez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- Jude Law — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
- Owen Teague — “The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Chris Hemsworth — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
- Pedro Pascal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Joseph Quinn — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) **
- Paul Bettany — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24)
- Jovan Adepo — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Jay O. Sanders — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Ryan Reynolds — “IF” (Paramount Pictures)
- Brendan Gleeson — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Harry Lawtey — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Joe Alwyn — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Mamoudou Athie — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Willem Dafoe — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Aran Murphy — “Klara and the Sun” (Sony Pictures) **
- Andy Samberg — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Haluk Bilginer — “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Giancarlo Esposito — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Shia LaBeouf — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Jon Voight — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Daveed Diggs — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Fred Hechinger — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Hamish Linklater — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Scott McNairy — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Willem Dafoe — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Nicholas Hoult — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- Gary Oldman — “Parthenope” (A24) **
- Corey Hawkins — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Drew Starkey — “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Charlie Plummer — “The Return” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- John Turturro — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Paul Raci — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Nicholas Braun — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Willem Dafoe — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Taylor Gray — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Cooper Hoffman — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Lamorne Morris — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Dylan O’Brien — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- J.K. Simmons — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Cory Michael Smith — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Finn Wolfhard — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- Dennis Quaid — “The Substance” (Mubi)
- Richard Roundtree — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
- Jonathan Bailey — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Jeff Goldblum — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Pedro Pascal — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
- Demián Bichir — “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) **
More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actor)

Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety
2024 category winner: Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories

2024 Oscars Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)

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The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.