Trump's Latin America policy will most likely focus on controlling migration, former ambassador says

President-elect Donald Trump used different strategies to tackle the flow of migration to the U.S. during his first term, and that will increase in his second, according to an adviser to the incoming president and former administration official.

“There will be a lot of emphasis on controlling the border and working with Central American and South American countries to do so,” Carlos Trujillo, who was ambassador to the Organization of American States in the first Trump term, said in an interview.

Border crossings hit record numbers in the first three years of the Biden administration after pandemic-era restrictions were lifted. Over the summer, the administration put in place strict asylum restrictions that led to an over 50% drop in the daily number of people encountered by Border Patrol, to the lowest level since 2020.

When it comes to migration, “you have to negotiate with many, many countries. It’s not just one or two,” said Trujillo. “Before, we would focus on the Northern Triangle as well as Mexico. I think now the migratory flows are just so overwhelming that there are a lot more players in the human trafficking business.”

He said the administration will likely review many different options to achieve their goals.

"I think he’s going to review whatever policies or opportunities help him accomplish that,” said Trujillo. “Some of the options might be economic options. Some of the options might be blockade options. Some of the options might be direct diplomacy. There are multiple options.”

During his first term, Trump threatened to cut hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras — the Northern Triangle — if they didn’t stop their citizens from seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. He also signed the Asylum Cooperative Agreements with the three countries allowing U.S. immigration officials to send asylum-seekers back to those countries before applying for refuge in the U.S. The Biden administration ended those agreements but implemented other policies to restrict the flow of asylum-seekers, such as requiring asylum application through the CBP One app and the Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela (CHNV) parole program.

NBC News has reported that the Trump administration plans to end Biden's programs, possibly making those who have not yet received asylum eligible for deportation.

Since then, Nicaragua has become a popular hub for migrants from Latin America and Africa trying to reach the U.S. They charge visa fees upon arrival and require them to leave within 96 hours.

“I don’t think they [Nicaragua] have a choice,” said Trujillo. “I don’t think they can compromise our national security and our safety with impunity.”

Mexico

During Trump’s first term, asylum-seekers were forced to wait out their asylum claims in Mexico. Then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador ceded to many of Trump’s immigration demands. During this year’s campaign, Trump vowed to place 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico unless they halted the flow of migrants as well as drugs to the U.S.

Trujillo touted the Trump administration's threats of tariffs and a subsequent migration deal with Mexico, saying that “it was a very effective strategy that has a track record of success."

Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, was among the first world leaders to call Trump last week to congratulate him after the election. But it remains to be seen whether Sheinbaum will be as cooperative as López Obrador was when it comes to the new Trump administration's demands.

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard recently suggested that his government could retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. imports if the Trump administration imposes tariffs on Mexican exports.

Venezuela

During Trump’s first term, Venezuela was at the forefront of his Latin America policy. He waged a campaign of “maximum pressure” against President Nicolás Maduro and backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó in an effort to depose the authoritarian leader. Biden attempted to negotiate with Maduro to hold free and fair elections while offering some sanctions relief. Despite these strategies, Maduro remains in power.

Trump may focus more on migration than trying to democratize the government. Venezuelans account for a large portion of migrants coming to the U.S.

“I think the policy is going to be focused — I don’t think exclusively, but strongly — on curbing illegal migration, especially from Venezuela," Trujillo said.

Cuba

Trump reversed many of Barack Obama’s executive orders liberalizing trade and travel to Cuba, banning U.S. flights to most Cuban cities and limiting remittances. Just prior to leaving office, Trump designated Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism. Biden lifted the ban on flights and remittances and kept the rest intact.

“You have to address Cuba’s impact on migration across the region,” said Trujillo, who is Cuban American.

He also said there is going to be a lot more pressure on stopping “acts of aggression in our hemisphere, especially directed at the United States” from China and Russia.

There have been reports that Beijing and Havana have discussed a new joint military training facility on the island. The Biden administration has said that China has had a listening post in Cuba for years, something the Cuban government denies. And over the summer Russian warships docked in the port of Havana for several days as a show of strength.

Cuba has been reeling from near catastrophic conditions. An economic crisis caused by their state-dominated economic model, decades-old sanctions which were tightened by the Trump administration and the effects of the pandemic on tourism have resulted in shortages of food, medicine and fuel. The island was recently hit by two hurricanes, an earthquake and major power grid failures that left the entire island in the dark.

Some countries rushed to help Cuba. Mexico sent nearly half a million barrels of crude oil and diesel in a matter of days. Russia pledged to send more. The United Nations and European Union sent 94 tons of aid, while Venezuela sent an additional 300 tons.

At a recent news briefing, Sheinbaum said, “We are going to support Cuba. ... Even if they criticize it, we are going to show solidarity.”

By contrast, Trujillo touted Trump's hard-line stance. “If you look at what’s happened in Cuba, the complete collapse of their economy was all driven by the pressure that President Trump implemented. I thought it was a much better policy than just acquiescing to the Cuban Communist Party.”