Will Las Vegas Make or Break the American Film Market?

The presidential election isn’t the only decisive moment playing out in the next few days. Over in Las Vegas, industry players are also throwing bets on the fate of a institution far more cherished than the U.S. government: the American Film Market.

A once-bustling film fair bulging with B-movie energy, the AFM has had a bumpy ride over the last few years, weakened by the pandemic, double Hollywood strikes, hospitality issues and prohibitive participation costs. But it has now relocated to Vegas, taking place amid slot machines and roulette tables, and is hoping to justify its importance for the film business — and, for many international guests, justify a connecting flight.

“Last year was not their shining moment, and for a lot of reasons, this is an opportunity for the AFM to show that we need a film market in America, and that we need one the first week in November. And if not, there’s a lot of people who will grab that opportunity,” says Scott Shooman, head of film at AMC Networks, a portfolio that encompasses IFC Films, RLJE Films and the streaming service Shudder. 

Among those looking to grab that opportunity to replace the AFM is the Toronto Film Festival which has announced it will launch and film market in 2026.

While a bevy of packages are being launched at the AFM, a number of U.S. reps aren’t making the trek to Vegas, or will fly in-and-out. Case in point: Nick Shumaker, the New York-based head of AC Independent, the sales arm of Anonymous Content, traveled to L.A. to have a bunch of meetings before the start of the AFM and flew back home without circling by Vegas.

Beyond the state of the AFM itself, Shumaker says the indie biz is also going through a switch and predicts the “next two markets are really going to be telling in that it feels like certain buyers in the United States have so much in production right now and so much in development.”

“It’ll be interesting to see how much interest there is in third party content at an early stage. I think you’re going to see more and more producers try to try to partner up with us distributors earlier than they would have five and 10 years ago, just because slates seem to be so busy right now,” he says.

As Shooman says, “Ultimately, it’s the projects that really make that happen and define the marketplace. It doesn’t matter if the hotel is problematic or if it’s tricky to get around.”

Sarah Schweitzman, agent at CAA Media Finance, says the market is “heavy on genre and action. And more measured and discerning with specialty — needing the quality of script, filmmaker and cast to be at the highest level with an acute awareness of what the audience is for each film.”

Based on the lineup of packages announced in the run up to the AFM, AGC Studios chairman-CEO Stuart Ford contends that there’s a “healthy spread of films in the $30 million-and-below range, but relatively few big budget packages.” 

“At the bigger-budget level, international buyers demand a robust U.S. theatrical release as a cornerstone but we’ve seen an extremely cautious 2024 from U.S. theatrical buyers and that disconnect is the biggest single challenge to the independent marketplace at the moment,” Ford added. 

One of the talking points of the AFM will certainly revolve around production budgets which skyrocketed during the peak years of streamers and rose even more after the pandemic. With streamers scaling back on investment, some indie projects with bloated budgets have gone from one market to another, struggling to find buyers willing to splurge. As film executives have been looking to bring down budgets, more and more movies have been shooting overseas to tap into tax incentives and cheaper crews.

“People are having to shoot in places that are a lot more generous than they typically have had just to try and get the budgets down. Certain places like the U.K. and Canada and Australia and other international countries understand that and fund it like an art form,” Shooman says. “And I’m sad to say that it’s not been as advantageous to shoot in the United States.

Shumaker, who’s repping the psychological horror “Victorian Psycho” starring Margaret Qualley, says, “One thing that’s undeniable is there’s a shift east for production, and by East, one could say certain areas of Canada, and the Eastern reaches of Europe.”

Ford says one of his packages, “The Last Druid” starring Russell Crowe is for instance aiming to shoot in Spain, which “brings in co-production equity to the film, strong incentives plus excellent crews and also qualifies ‘The Last Druid’ as European, which gives added ancillary value for European broadcasters,” he says. Talent costs have also “come back down to earth over the past 12-18 months mainly because of the the streamer production slowdown,” Ford continues. Besides incentives and talent costs, he is optimistic about the “cost of capital” going down and a “steady influx of AI products” that he says are going to “meaningfully reduce costs.”

While this move outside of the U.S. is motivated by efforts to cut costs, it’s also creatively inspired and reflects the greater international scope of the awards season and changing tastes of audiences who are more interested than they used to in non-U.S. movies.

“I think there’s an opportunity for everyone as the world has become a smaller place and people are less allergic to read subtitles in a lot of ways. Actors and talent are more open to working with international talents.”

“When you look at the Academy space of the past couple years, and you see films like ‘The Zone of Interest’ and ‘Worst Person in the World’ and ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ turning up in the actor category, or best actor or best script,” says Shooman.

This year’s Oscar race, for instance, is seeing “Emilia Perez,” Netflix’s musical thriller directed by French helmer Jacques Audiard, and starring Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez, as one of the major contenders.

“The Academy has gotten much more international, and the world has gotten a lot smaller for its content,” Shooman says, pointing to the recent theatrical success of “When Evil Lurks,” an Argentinian film which the company handled. “10 years ago, you would never release a Spanish language horror film theatrically,” he argues.

While the U.S. indie film business has gone through major upheavals in the last five years, due to the pandemic, strikes and streamers slowdown, a handful of indie players have been thriving. 

While genre and horror exploded in popularity in the wake of the pandemic, and continues to dominated trends in terms of packages being launched at the AFM, Dylan Leiner, SVP of acquisitions and production at Sony Pictures Classics, says he’s “observing some recovery in genres that are not horror.”

Looking ahead, Leiner, who made the trip to Las Vegas, says the “AFM isn’t the only major U.S. film event going through an existential moment.”

“We’re seeing a lot of that transition right now, and the AFM is the first one. Sundance may well be the second. And Toronto has declared that there will be a major shift in 2026,” he says, noting that having Toronto step in as a market, and possibly replacing the AFM, may not be a feasible option.

“There’s a lot of anxiety with the market being that early in the fall, because packages always come together at last minute,” Leiner says, adding that he was still getting packages at the end of last week.

“How can that happen if half the world is on vacation in August and there’s no vendors that are going to be able to cut trailers? Especially in France and Western Europe.”

John Hopewell contributed to this article.