In Georgia, the winner in the presidential race may be determined by who doesn't vote

WASHINGTON — As America hurtles toward the 2024 election, the road to the presidency passes through Georgia, one of the seven battleground states considered vital to the fortunes of anyone who wants to win the White House. Georgia also is one of the few southern states considered up for grabs, having gone to President Joe Biden in 2020 after a run of six-straight wins there by Republican presidential candidates.

Four years after Biden won the state by fewer than 12,000 votes, the campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have poured financial and tactical resources into the state based on the theory that the outcome may be determined as much by who doesn't vote as who does.

The question is whether their sales pitches will have the ear of everyone. For people at the lower rungs of the economic ladder, there are often more basic priorities. Bibb County made a good test area with its high poverty rate, diverse demographics and large number of seemingly eligible voters who stayed home in 2020. Interviews with dozens of women and some men on the lower socioeconomic level showed there is a possible relationship between poverty and turnout that candidates are working to overcome.

Wasn't 2020 a record turnout?

More than 150 million people voted but even with 2020’s record number of ballots cast, more than 75 million people eligible to vote did not cast ballots, according to a study by the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California. In Bibb County, about 47,000 people who were eligible to vote, defined as legal citizens 18 or older, did not.

Other data from AP VoteCast, a survey of both voters and nonvoters, determined that a percentage of those nonvoters would be more impoverished. The survey showed that nonvoters in 2020 tended to be poorer, younger, less educated, unmarried and minorities. The data, collected by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, also found that among voters in 2020, 15% reported having a household income under $25,000 in the previous year, compared with roughly 3 in 10 nonvoters. Put those characteristics against a population of 27 million adults who live below poverty, according to the Census, and the figures suggest that people on the lower rungs of the economic ladder probably make up a significant subset of all nonvoters.

What are the demographics here?

A majority of Bibb County residents are minorities and over 60% are unmarried. Four in 10 are younger than 30 and nearly half only have a high school education. Just over 60% of students in Bibb County schools are eligible for free and reduced-price meals with 36 of the schools offering free and reduced-price meals to all students, said a spokeswoman for the Georgia Department of Education.

Kathy McCollum, president of the Middle Georgia Community Food Bank, said the poverty rate is 18.5% in the 24 counties served by her organization, including Bibb. She said donations come in from retail grocers, growers, manufacturers and processors. Financial donations rose dramatically in 2020 during the pandemic but have fallen off. Food from her organization is distributed to over 200 partner agencies, which are nonprofits or churches that distribute to struggling residents and families.

Why does income matter when it comes to voting?

The reasons people offered were varied. Some were prevented because of past criminal justice problems. Others had childcare and transportation concerns. Early voting, especially for those with unstable housing situations, could be hard because of address requirements. And some didn't see how discussions about money for home buyers, college debt forgiveness and tax cuts for the wealthy pertained to them. Linda Solomon, 58, said her concern is stretching her Social Security disability far enough to cover her apartment rent and utilities. She relies on food pantries and organizations like Mother's Nest in Macon to get her through the tight periods. She stopped voting years ago when she decided her circumstances stayed the same through multiple administrations.

What is Mother's Nest?

It is a nonprofit that began in 2022. Its founder and executive director, Sabrina Friday, remembered her own experiences as a teen mother with little help and saw the need. The organization provides a variety of services, including food, clothing, baby furniture and classes ranging from self-care to infant CPR and dental clinics. She stresses civic engagement but "when you are sleeping in a hotel and not sure where your next meal is coming from and your car has been seized, voting is not high on the list of priorities.”

Have others noticed?

LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter, said she thinks there’s beginning to be discussion about basic pocketbook issues, like food costs and housing. But, there needs to be more to entice people who are ignored by society to see voting as something that can solve their systemic problems. The stock market and unemployment “are not an indicator of how well people are doing.”

Are the campaigns there?

Janiyah Thomas, a Trump campaign official, said get-out-the-vote efforts are focused on low-propensity voters. She added they are also utilizing volunteers and using traditional canvassing methods as well as TikTok and outside groups.

The Harris campaign has an office in Macon staffed by six full-time team members who are focused on reaching communities throughout the region. That includes canvassing and door-knocking in lower-income and other areas. A campaign official said there also is a large rural presence in Georgia that skews towards lower-income residents.