Why Russia has struggled to halt Ukraine's incursion in the Kursk region

2 months ago 9

With the bulk of its military pressing offensives inside Ukraine, the Kremlin appears to lack enough reserves to drive out Kyiv’s forces.

KYIV, Ukraine — After three weeks of fighting, Russia is still struggling to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, a surprisingly slow and low-key response to the first occupation of its territory since World War II.

It all comes down to Russian manpower and Russian priorities.

With the bulk of its military pressing offensives inside Ukraine, the Kremlin appears to lack enough reserves for now to drive out Kyiv's forces.

President Vladimir Putin doesn’t seem to view the attack — or at least, give the impression that he views it — as a grave enough threat to warrant pulling troops from eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, his priority target.

“Putin’s focus is on the collapse of the Ukrainian state, which he believes will automatically render any territorial control irrelevant,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Months after launching the full-scale invasion in 2022, Putin illegally annexed the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as part of Russian territory, and their full capture has been a top priority. He declared in June that Kyiv must withdraw its forces from parts of those regions it controls as a condition for peace talks, a demand that Ukraine rejects.

“In marshaling forces to meet Ukraine’s incursion, Russia is doing all it can to avoid drawing units from its own offensive in the Donbas,” said Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. “Russia currently judges that it can contain the threat on its own soil without compromising its most important goal in Ukraine."

Even as Ukrainian forces pushed into Kursk on Aug. 6, Russian troops continued their slow advance around the strategic city of Pokrovsk and other parts of the Donetsk area.

“Russia is very keen on continuing the attacks toward Pokrovsk and not taking resources away from Pokrovsk to Kursk,” said Nico Lange, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis.

Unlike Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces have built extensive fortifications, other parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control are less protected and could be significantly more vulnerable to the Russian onslaught if Pokrovsk falls.

Speaking about Kursk in televised meetings with officials, Putin described the incursion as an attempt by Kyiv to slow the Russian campaign in Donetsk, where he said the Russian advance only has accelerated despite events in Kursk.

Russia also has launched a steady barrage of long-range strikes on Ukraine's power grid. An attack Monday on energy facilities was one of the largest of the war, involving over 200 missiles and drones and causing widespread blackouts. It highlighted loopholes in Ukraine’s air defenses that are stretched between protecting front-line troops as well as infrastructure.

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